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Prediction for CME (2024-02-16T03:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-02-16T03:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29261/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the north/northwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely a filament eruption spanning N40W05 to N25W35 which begins to lift-off around 2024-02-16T02:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. An opening of field lines is visible from this region in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery, with post eruptive loops visible in all SDO wavelengths starting around 2024-02-16T05:00Z. There is no clear signature of this CME arrival/glancing blow at L1. There is a minor unclear arrival signature between 2024-02-20T09:15Z and 11Z, with a relatively smooth rotation of magnetic field components, mainly Bz, and an increase in Bt from around 5 nT to 9.5 nT, however this is likely a signature of a streamer blowout.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-02-19T21:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

SIDC URSIGRAM 40217
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 Feb 2024, 1230UT

Coronal mass ejections: A coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected at 03:12
UTC on Feb 16, in LASCO C2 data. The CME is associated with a filament
eruption, observed from 00:48 UTC on February 16, in SDO/AIA 304 and 193 in
the north-west quadrant of the visible solar disk. The CME is directed
primarily to the North from the Earth's perspective and the bulk of the
ejection will miss Earth, while a mild glancing blow arrival might be
possible late on Feb 19th - early on Feb 20th. 

(Another wide CME was
detected at 09:24 UTC on February 16, in LASCO C2 data. The CME is
associated with a X2.5 flare, originating from NOAA AR 3576, along with a
Type II and Type IV radio bursts. The CME is directed primarily to the
South-West from the Earth's perspective and will likely miss the Earth.)

Lead Time: 56.98 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2024-02-17T12:01Z

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